National Housing Market Update March 2020 AND how is the Corona Virus affecting the housing market?


Whats happening in the US housing market and how has the corona virus affected housing prices so far I’m Kate Barnes from Metis Real
Estate and I believe that data is the power source behind making great real
estate decisions now in today’s video I’m going to be taking the latest
CoreLogic data available and focusing on two main topics here one is what’s been
happening in the in the US housing market so far this year in particular
with January data and secondly what are the forecasts for the coming year then
we’re going to look at a couple more important factors that should be
discussed at this point one is how is seasonality currently affecting the
housing market and what is seasonality and the second topic is
what’s on everybody’s lips and I keep getting asked about this
how has the corona virus affected the housing market so far now before I get
into anything can I please ask you to like this video
and if you haven’t yet done so subscribe to my channel just to keep up to date
with the latest housing topics real estate topics and market updates ok
let’s get started with number one what’s happened in the US housing markets so
far this year so looking at the January data from CoreLogic which is the latest
data currently available the national home prices have actually increased by
at four percent year-over-year looking at January 20 data versus January 2019
data now this is marked as the eighth year of increasing home prices so
carrying on from like what was expected really I’m going to just show you this
chart and this will take you through the differences in price growth looking at
the different tiered properties so we have low price low to middle price
middle to moderate and high price so as you can see the greatest increases are
actually continuously seen in the low priced properties and then it’s followed
in order really next to low to middle middle to moderate and
high-priced properties so as you can see the low-priced properties are increasing
at faster rates within the high-priced properties which does make sense because
you’re going to have more demand for the lower priced properties given that it’s
more accessible to a greater number of people okay now let’s go into looking at
this next chart figure 3 which is um showing you which states had the highest
and the lowest year-over-year changes again this is looking at January 20 data
versus January 2019 data so the biggest and smallest increases so
it’s pretty consistent with what we saw the previous month so Idaho is
definitely showing the largest increases up there at the top and then as you can
see Pennsylvania sitting in the middle there which is like a pretty even ground
and then as we move down you can see that Connecticut again is the only state
to actually experience a negative growth in home prices so that actually seen
declines the only state across the u.s. now we don’t want to ignore the fact
that prices did increase at a slower rate in 25 states and a standout in this
set in these states actually Nevada which has been
experiencing the greatest cooldown so looking at January 2018 to January 2019
we actually saw a 10% increase in home prices now comparing on the other hand
though from 2019 to 2020 in the same month of January the increase is still
happening it’s not negative however is much slower at three point three percent
so this to me is like a alarm bell saying if you want to invest in the
Nevada market now could be a really great time because it’s slowed down a
little which means that you know generally you would likely see and I’m
not working in the Nevada market in fact I would do a shout-out to my friend
Andrew Finney from the a market because he’s all over that
market and he has his own YouTube channel but yeah it’s generally when you
see a slowdown in the market like that you’re going to see less competing
buyers so it could be a great time to actually invest in that market okay now
if we go to my area of California let’s first look at California on the whole so
the median house price for single-family detached homes so just a note that it’s
one of the detached homes in this data rose from 536 830 to 575 160
so that’s actually a 7.1 percent increase seen in January 20 versus
January 2019 so pretty solid increases there for California when incorporating
all of the single family homes are including the condos and townhomes as
well as the detached homes the increase is looking more around the ten point
three percent so this is a big increase it’s in the double digits and it’s the
biggest increase seen in three years so in California it is like a pretty solid
market because we do have a shortage of housing here unfortunately so this is
what we what we do tend to see in terms of the data okay now this is partly to
do with seeing a slower January 2019 because if you remember a year ago there
was the government shutdown at the start of the year and there was also quite a
bit of speculation about how big it was going to go in terms of the real estate
market and the economy as well as this we also had a very strong 2020 January so
both these factors have really brought up that number into the double digits so
yeah the data really does back up the the talk so to speak that the market is
definitely continuing and continuing in an upwards direction which follows
through on that pick up that we saw last year number two what is the latest
forecast for the US housing market looking forward so what I’m using here
for this is actually the latest data available
from CoreLogic as I mentioned it’s being published on March third so it’s just a
few days ago in the home price index highlights report which uses January
2020 data so the latest forecast is that from January 2020 to January 2021 The
Economist ecologic are expecting to see a 5.4 percent increase in home prices
across the u.s. nationally all right I’m going to move straight on to topic
number four which is seasonality so how is seasonality affecting the housing
market right now so seasonality basically is describing the cycle that
the housing market moves in throughout the year where you have more
transactions occurring and less transactions occurring so currently
we’re actually in the season of buying and selling houses so this is a pretty
fast-moving time of year for in real estate so typically at this time of year
the number of properties coming onto the market will increase and also the number
of buyers looking for homes will increase and that is no different to
what we’re seeing in the market right now so basically this will happen
historically leading up to May where it becomes sort of the busiest time and the
largest quantity of transactions are caring and then that’s before it slows
down over this summer break when everyone goes on holidays and etc so
yeah it’s basically a great time to sell because you’re having a lot more buyers
coming onto the markets there’s more competition for your home in terms of
buying it can there’s sort of pros and cons involved because yes there’s gonna
be more competition with more buyers but there’s also gonna be like right now
there’s great interest rates available and there’s a lot more options on the
market with all of the new listings coming out at a really rapid pace so
like with anything in life there’s pros and cons to everything and yeah I think
it’s about making the most of the opportunities it
in front of you and being very objective not only subjective in your buying and
selling decisions moving on to topic number four the most
frequently asked question I’ve been getting the last couple of weeks how is
the corona virus affecting the US housing market so no one could predict
the corona virus and I don’t think anyone can really predict exactly
how far this will go so what we can do though is look at the current data
available and make sure that we’re stay up-to-date with the data and also just
stay in touch with the market so that’s what I’ll be aiming to do on this
channel so that you’re getting more up-to-date information on how things are
progressing on a day to day basis now any time in the economy when there is
uncertainty the stock market goes down and as a response and ones go up because
they’re safe for investment and likewise mortgage rates go down
so we’ve already just seen a cut and we’ll likely to see some tangible
element of tangible responses to this cut in the next month or so take into
consideration that we already have some very very low mortgage rates lower like
now rates of looking to go back as low as they were in 2012 so that’s really
low figures here from mortgage rates having low interest rates
spurs buyers to go out and look for home to buy now this is because it allows the
monthly repayments to be lower right so this also gives the buyer more
purchasing power and when you have more purchasing power among more people then
the housing prices will tend to go up this is more competition involved so it
does look like rates could go even lower and depending on the overall economic
movements of the next few months we’ll see the direct result of that there’s
also a huge supply issue especially in California so this is another
so they take into consideration because when you have more demand than supply
obviously the prices are going to go up that’s how the market works and the
other thing that we need to keep in perspective is that the economists have
not actually yet shifted their forecast significantly so sometimes just a little
but not significantly and this I think will need to be monitored as things
progress with the corona virus outbreak and how long it takes to recover from
this at this stage it’s looking like the effect of the corona virus has been
fairly small on the housing market the biggest change that we may see coming up
is that manufacturing supply chains are being affected which means that raw
materials for new constructions are going to have higher price tags because
there’s going to again it be a shift in the demand and supply of this market so
when the raw materials are going up then the prices for new home constructions it
makes sense for them also to go up so the other thing is also just with
regards to you know global markets being affected it’s likely that there will be
less foreign investors in the coming months because they will have them their
eyes and their minds more on what’s happening at home rather than you know I
think that’s going to potentially be more important than looking at investing
in other countries so it’s likely that we’ll see a decrease in foreign
investment given the interest rates being so long it’s also likely that the
numbers of domestic buyers will actually increase and this could likewise been
good opportunity for local residents to actually consider buying their own home
now because they may not be having as much competition from foreign investors
so the reality is that it may actually counteract the numbers so that we may
not see a change in the number of transactions but more of a shift in the
percentages of where these buyers are coming from one more point I want to
just add to this section of the video is that in 2003 when we had the SARS
outbreak it actually did affect the consumer
confidence at the time it was impacted however the financial market actually
bounced back pretty quickly so hopefully that’s what’s going to help in here
hopefully the coronavirus does get managed sooner than later and we see a
similar pattern that’s starting to occur but we will I think the important thing
is right now not to actually panic but to just actually keep on top of what’s
happening and keep informed so that’s another reason why I would like to
invite you to subscribe to this channel because I will be giving up-to-date
information on how the market is progressing that is it for today I hope
that it answered a bunch of your questions if you got any value out of
today’s video please hit the thumbs up button share the love make me smile and
if you haven’t yet done so hit the subscribe button to keep up to date with
the latest real estate topics especially if you’re in the Bay Area and pretty
sure your find this data pretty valuable thank you and have an amazing week

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